proportion of the population that test positive for the disease in the community at any given point in time (positivity rate or prevalence).number of new infections of the disease identified during a specified time period (incidence).The ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey provides information on the: There will be no publication week commencing 27 December 2021.
Thursday 23 December 2021 at 3pm – this will replace the publication on Friday 24 December 2021 Please note that over the upcoming holiday period, it’s the intention of UKHSA to publish R and growth rate estimates on the following dates and times: See Consensus statements on previous epidemic estimates from UKHSA.
#Sage 100 updates series#
The time series document is updated regularly. Historical UK estimates up to 26 March 2021 are also included. See a time series of published R and growth rate estimates ( ODS, 70.9 KB) for: The estimated intervals for R and growth rate may not exactly correspond to each other due to the submission of different independent estimates and rounding in presentation.
For example, a significant amount of variability across a region due to a local outbreak may mean that a single average value does not accurately reflect the way infections are changing throughout that region.Įstimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range. When the numbers of cases, hospital admissions or deaths are at low levels and/or there is a high degree of variability in transmission across a region, then care should be taken when interpreting estimates of R and the growth rate. These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions. Due to this, and the time required to see changes in the data streams, these estimates will not fully reflect the recent rapid growth of Omicron. Latest growth rate range for England 0% to +3% per dayĪn R value between 1.0 and 1.2 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 12 other people.Ī growth rate of between 0% and +3% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat or growing by up to 3% every day.Įstimates of R and growth rate are averages over time, geographies, viral variants, and communities. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare. As a result, UK estimates of the R value and growth rate will no longer be produced.įollowing extensive partnership working, the responsibility for estimating the R value and growth rates has transferred from SPI-M to the UK Health Security Agency ( UKHSA). The R value and growth rates for the 4 nations and NHS England regions are more robust and useful metrics than those for the whole UK.
Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK-level estimates are less meaningful than previously and may not accurately reflect the current picture of the epidemic. UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state.